Early voting is reaching record levels this election, and a new
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll examines the characteristics of early
voters.
Early voters throughout the month of October tended
to have a high level of interest in the election. Older voters and
women were more likely to vote early, the national poll of 1,482
registered voters showed. Party affiliation and education level did not
affect the likelihood of voting early.
The Hawkeye Poll
data released today come from a month-long poll conducted Oct. 1-28 and
echo other polls showing high levels of early voting. The overall
survey has a margin of error of 2.6 percent.
Early voting
picked up steam throughout the month as more states began the early
voting process and voters took advantage of it. During the first two
weeks of the survey, Oct. 1-14, just under 4 percent of voters cast an
early vote. During the third week, Oct. 15-21, 8.9 percent voted early.
In the most recent week of the survey, Oct. 22-28, nearly one third --
31.7 percent -- had already voted.
Finally, in a small
additional sample of 146 respondents collected Oct. 29 through Nov. 1,
nearly half -- 48.6 percent -- said they had already voted.
"Levels
of early voting go well beyond anything we have seen in the past," said
Hawkeye Poll Co-Director Caroline Tolbert, associate professor of
political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences." But
it remains to be seen if this represents many brand new voters who
otherwise would not have voted, or simply a shifting of when
experienced voters actually cast their vote."
Previous
research suggests early voters are much like regular voters in terms of
being older, more interested in politics and having higher levels of
education than non-voters.
Older voters most likely to vote early
Across
the full sample, early voters are more likely to be older. Voters 60 or
older represent 25.1 percent of the sample but make up 38.6 percent of
early voters. Voters under age 30 represent 15.2 percent of the sample
but only 10.6 percent of all early voters.
During the week
of Oct. 21-28, these older voters were even more likely to vote early,
with over 42 percent saying they had already voted, compared to 30
percent of the youngest group.
"The number of young people
voting early remains lower than other age groups, but it's a bump in
comparison to past years," Tolbert said. "This suggests that Barack
Obama's strategy to encourage early voting, especially on campuses,
might be working, even though older people remain the most likely early
voting group."
Poll shows little partisan difference in early voters
Across
the entire month, little partisan difference is seen in early voting,
with 10.9 percent of Democrats, 10.5 percent of Republicans and 11.1
percent of independents voting early. But in the most recent week, Oct.
21-28, 33 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of independents reported
voting early, compared to 30.1 percent of Republicans.
Across
the entire month, about 13 percent of respondents who self-identified
as liberals reported voting early, compared to 10.3 percent of those
who call themselves conservatives and 10.9 percent of moderates,
another indication that ideology does not directly drive early voting.
And
while the last week of the poll shows Obama leading John McCain by 51.1
percent to 40 percent, tracking other national polls, more McCain
voters reported early voting during that week, 39.2 percent to 25.9
percent.
Interest in election increases likelihood of voting early
Sixty-five
percent of early voters followed election news very closely, compared
to only 52.7 percent of those who had not yet voted.
Ninety-two percent of early voters thought a lot about the election versus 88 percent of other voters.
People
who followed ballot issues in their state closely were also more likely
to vote early. Of early voters, 47.6 percent said they were very
interested in the ballot issues in their state, compared to only 39.3
percent of those who had not yet voted.
"This
shows that voters who are most interested in politics are more likely
to take advantage of early voting," said Hawkeye Poll Director David
Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the UI.
Women much more likely to vote early as election approaches
Earlier
in the month there was no difference between men and women in early
voting but in the most recent week, women were far more likely to
report early voting, with 36.6 percent of women and 28.6 percent of men
having already voted.
The poll showed little difference in the education levels of early voters.
About the University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
The
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll is directed by David Redlawsk and
co-directed by Caroline Tolbert, associate professors of political
science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. The poll is a
teaching, research and service project of the Department of Political
Science and is housed at the UI's Social Science Research Center. The
university's College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the Office of the
Provost provided funding for the poll.
For results of past
Hawkeye Polls, a list of UI political experts, and trading prices for
Election 2008 contracts on the Tippie College of Business' Iowa
Electronic Markets, visit http://www.uiowa.edu/election.